China will be encouraged by what it sees in Europe.
In December 2021 Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping held a video call. Did Putin telegraph his intentions regarding Ukraine at that meeting?
Russia's public readout of the call seemed to indicate he had: "According to Putin foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov, the Russian and Chinese leaders discussed “mounting threats to Russia’s national interests from the US and the NATO block, which consistently move their military infrastructure close to the Russian borders.”
How NATO, and particularly the USA, react to any Russian intervention in Ukraine will give China a playbook for how it might expect Western nations to react if it was to threaten Taiwan. So what have they learned so far?
#1) The USA is not really interested in fighting other nations' fights. Nothing new here. The US only entered the 1914-1918 world war in 1917. It joined the 1939-1945 world war in 1941 (in reality, 1942) only after being directly attacked by Japan. US President Biden has stated NATO will not be putting boots on the ground in Ukraine, and is only talking toothless sanctions if an invasion comes. Despite US concerns about China's Pacific ambitions, it has adopted a neutral stance on Taiwan, supporting its right to self determination while also recognizing China's claim that Taiwan is historically Chinese. The US has no defense treaty with Taiwan and developments in the Ukraine would reinforce to China it is highly unlikely to intervene directly in a Chinese invasion.
#2) Western nations will provide no real material support to Taiwan until the last minute. But when they do, it could be significant. The US provided Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine some time ago, but on the caveat they could only be used if specifically authorized by the US govt. Despite Russian mobilization over several months, that authorization was withheld until this week, when Russia started new 'military exercises' in Belarus indicating a military intervention is imminent. The UK suddenly started shipping lightweight NLAW anti-armor missiles this week too. These systems have the potential to significantly lessen Russia's armor advantage. They are unlikely to turn the tide in Ukraine's favor.
Taiwan is a key US arms importer, but China would be more interested what the US is NOT supplying to Taiwan than what it is. The US govt recently approved the sale of 750m USD of arms to Taiwan including artillery, drones, Harpoon missile coastal defense systems, and precision guidance kits for iron bombs. Aircraft sold have included F-16s, but no F-35 stealth fighters, unlike those supplied to Korea and Japan. What do these weapons shipments have in common? They are all old tech, and there will be no major secrets given away if (when?) they fall into Chinese hands, which tells China the US expects Taiwan to fall to China eventually.
Should China mobilize amphibious and/or airborne units for an invasion of Taiwan, Ukraine shows China that the US would most likely ramp up deliveries of Harpoon anti-ship, Patriot anti-air missiles, Stinger and Javelin man-portable missiles to significantly increase the cost to China in ships, aircraft and armor. It will also ramp up rhetoric around sanctions and economic consequences. None of these are likely to deter China in the least.