Should Ukraine be prepared for history buff Vladimir Putin choosing an auspicious date to move his forces into Ukraine? If so, they might do worse than to look east between January 30 and February 9.
Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, is an avid student of history, and no more so than when it comes to Ukraine. He recently wrote that in his opinion, Ukraine was historically Russian, and he cites many precedents and proofs. One of these is the Russo-Polish war which ended with the 1667 Treaty of Andrusovo, in which Russia was ceded a large part of what today is Ukraine, and which included the currently contested Donbas region.
With Russia massing forces on the border with Ukraine now, and analysts warning an attack in late January/February is possible, it is more than a little interesting to look at what date the Treaty of Andrusovo was signed.
Negotiations started on 30 January and concluded on 9 February.
There are several signs Putin is not planning a campaign to capture the entirety of Ukraine, Europe's second largest nation. But to return to Russia the territory he regards as rightfully Russian? From the Dnieper river East to the Russian border, as it was in 1667? That would have a certain appeal to a man of history.
Former Ukraine defense minister, Andriy Zagorodniyuk, claims Russia would need much more than the 66-67 battalion tactical groups it has arrayed along Ukraine's border to conquer and hold Ukraine, and that satellite intel shows these battalions may not even be full strength.
But the forces being readied might be enough to return to Russia the territory it was granted in the Treaty of Andrusovo. And give Putin enough reason to claim he was restoring the Russian empire to its previous glory.